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Baller Shots

fuckyeanba:

In case you’re not following Baller Shots, you should do so right now. I’ll wait.

Did you follow him? Good.

The guy isn’t writing all day every day like I foolishly—and poorly, I might add—do during the playoffs. His sporadic posting is what makes his blogging even more impressive.

Follow his predictions for the 2012 NBA playoffs. You’ll laugh a helluva lot more than when you read me.

Lies. Reckless lies. My bro here, FuckYeaNBA, is better than this blogosphere deserves. His post rate is insane, and they’re thorough posts, too. I could post that many too, except in case you haven’t seen, like, 99% of my posts, it’s basically NBA Memes if NBA Memes dropped out of grad school, smoked a lot of pot, and did nothing but watch basketball and Patrick Swayze movies (seriously, have you guys seen Youngblood?). FYNBA basically is your one-stop shop for NBA analysis on a 24 hour basis. It’s actually scary. I don’t know where he gets the time.

But since you’re on Tumblr and following the both of us (right? Right.) you may want to check out these guys too:

  • NBA Off-Season - One of the first blogs I followed when I joined Tumblr. They have a crack team of guys who are great at analysis and guys who clearly just know what to post and when to post it. Respeck, mah brahs.
  • Hakeem Mutombo - One of my favorite “artifact blogs”. Just posting pictures that make you go “Oh I miss that so much.” Right, Vince?
  • Indie Basketball - Basketball players inserted into indie bands. It’s perfect, and another blog that makes me wish I knew photoshop better.
  • Faces of Thibs - aka what I see at night out of the corner of my eye when I try to sleep.
  • Mutombo Jr. - Hey, remember that time you stumbled upon that site with all those cool jersey designs from the past and present? That’s this guy. He did that.
  • 24 Seconds - This blog would not exist without this guy. I don’t know how to express how appreciative I am of 24 Seconds for posting the pictures that I reblog on an (almost) daily basis. And the best part is, he just does it for himself. He just loves the game, so he keeps track of the pics. Love ‘em.
  • Double Scribble - Drawings of NBA Players. They’re good, too! Also shout-out to this guy for the fantasy league we were in together. Let’s do it again soon.
  • Hipster or Athlete - Granted, while he covers sports other than basketball, there’s few blogs truer than this one.
  • NBA Doppelgängers - Never wrong. Never wrong about any of these. Another perfect blog.
  • Craig Sager’s Suits - Just as it sounds, and just as funny.
  • Hoop Dreams - Another great artifact blog. Nothin’ but good stuff.
  • Fat Shawn Kemp - Cards. Oh the cards. As someone who still has six LARGE bins of random sports cards at my parent’s house, I really appreciate this blog.
  • Pick and Roll - Artifacts. Important ones, too. Wish they posted more :’(
  • NBA Hoot - I can seriously say that I have never seen anything on this site prior to its posting. Funny and weird stuff.
  • Kicks on Cards - “Your Jordans are fucked up!”
  • Got ‘em, Coach - The only blog I can’t follow because of how jealous I get. Also, Toledo shout out.

Then there’s excellent blogs like Up North Trips, The Grand Archives, Day of the Dreamweavers, and Ballerism, who, while they don’t exclusively deal in baller material, should have every single one of their posts in a museum somewhere. They’re the true documentarians.

Basically, I just wanted to thank all of the blogs I’ve ever reblogged, and every single one of my 800+ followers for being here. Tumblr has kinda changed my life, and I wouldn’t be the fan, the blogger, nor the man I am today without y’all.

(Oh, and if any of you are ladies, let me know so I can change the him’s to her’s above. I sometimes forget it’s not all guys blogging from a couch.)

EDIT: AUGH. Forgot Russ Bengtson and J.E. Skeets! Follow them on twitter, too.

fuckyeanba:

Indiana Pacers VS. Orlando Magic

Preview

The Indiana Pacers are a well-oiled team in the mold of the Sixers; except, where the Sixers faltered in the season’s second half, the Pacers exploded. Danny Granger found his shot (and his confidence); Roy Hibbert continued to improve; David West has added some much—needed toughness (remember, he knocked out the Cavs mascot); Paul George let everyone know he has an all-star birth on the horizon; George Hill supplanting Darren Collison in the starting unit meant more ball movement to start the game and infused the 2nd unit with Collison’s quickness and scoring. They have been on a tear down the stretch and it means they’re matched-up against possibly the worst team to make the playoffs. 

Dwight Howard is gone. Not for the reasons everyone thought before the trade deadline, but because of a herniated disc in his back (back injuries are the knee injuries of 2012). Because of Howard’s absence, the Magic have basically nothing in the way of defense. Despite Howard’s childish behavior with Stan Van Gundy and the people of Orlando, he was everything they needed to defend the rim. Look for the Howard-less Magic to get lit up most nights by the well-balanced Pacers attack. Sure, they’ll hit some 3’s to keep some games close, and they’ll steal a game at home when new top-dog Ryan Andersen goes off, but it’s a far cry from what they could have been if Howard had stayed healthy (that he stayed in Orlando at all, is a minor miracle). 

Head to Head this season - Magic won 3-1 (but Howard played in all 4 games)

Prediction

Pacers in 5

Schedule

Game 1 - Sat. April 28, Orlando at Indiana, 7 p.m./4 p.m., ESPN
Game 2 - Mon. April 30, Orlando at Indiana, 7:30 p.m./4:30 p.m., NBA TV
Game 3 - Wed. May 2, Indiana at Orlando, 7:30 p.m./4:30 p.m., NBA TV
Game 4 - Sat. May 5, Indiana at Orlando, 2 p.m./11 a.m., ESPN
Game 5 * Tue. May 8, Orlando at Indiana, TBD
Game 6 * Fri. May 11, Indiana at Orlando, TBD
Game 7 * Sun. May 13, Orlando at Indiana, TBD

I love this Pacers team. And I hate this Magic team. I’m really not even sure how the Magic win as many games as they do with one of the shittiest rosters in the league. Teams should not be built out of white guys who shoot threes. That’s not good foundation for a house, that’s extra stuff, like a colorful shower curtain, or some stained glass hanging in the window. Add in a couple of the world’s worst point guards (hey Chris Duhon) and a litany of big men who have no idea how to play like big men (although putting 6’9” Big Baby at center doesn’t help) and you got yourself a real shit sandwich. You know what the Magic should do? Get rid of everybody. Every single player. There is not one player on this team worth keeping. Not one. We can fault Dwight Howard for being an asshole all we want, because he is, but the rest of the team is full of assholes too! You have well-known asshole J.J. Redick, a guy who only plays when he feels emotionally up to it in Jameer Nelson, the guy who likes going to clubs when he has “the flu” Hedo Turkoglu (rhyming not intentional), and the previously mentioned Chris Duhon, who I thought had been kicked off the team no less than twice this season. I could be imagining things, but I’m pretty sure I’m not.

Then look at the Pacers. This is a team that DESERVES to no longer be humble. They’re good! Real good! David West is like that sixth man who can do it all, except you can start him and he’ll still be good! Danny Granger got his swag back, Paul George is a revelation, and Dr. Hibbert is chuckling all the way to Pawnee. I know that’s not a comment on his game, but I love the guy. Throw in a still-getting-better Darren Collison, and you got yourself a stew goin’.

Prediction

Pacers in 5

fuckyeanba:

Los Angeles Lakers VS. Denver Nuggets

Preview

The Denver Nuggets are a team. George Karl and the Nuggets management made certain of that when they dealt Carmelo Anthony to New York in exchange for a bevy of underrated talent (led by Italian sensation, Danilo Gallinari). As such, they’ll win or lose this series as a team. George Karl couldn’t be happier about this development, but it’s not going to be easy moving forward. They’re facing a team that’s on it’s last legs, and could be rife with passionate fury because of it. Never fight an injured dog; especially when it has its back to the wall basket. The Nuggets back-court might just destroy the Lakers (even with the addition of Ramon Sessions). Aaron Afflalo has been excellent in the homestretch, and Ty Lawson makes me tired just by watching him zoom up and down the court. Kenneth Faried is my new NBA crush, and his enthusiasm for the dirty work makes me think George Karl actually smiles some days. The return of Gallinari from injury and the addition of JaVale McGee down low, means this all-around squad is perfect for George Karl. They just have to play some defense. Hell hath no fury than a George Karl-coached team that fails in its defensive rotations.

Kobe Bryant has somehow turned me into a fan this season. He’s made his way through a ridiculous schedule to give the Lakers a 3 seed before sitting down the last couple weeks to rest up for the playoffs. We’ll see if it works, but the loss of MWP due to his 7-game suspension (6 games will be in the playoffs), is going to be yet another obstacle in the path towards Kobe’s 6th title. The Lakers still have Pau Gasol; his floppy-arms and goofy expressions are enjoyable for bloggers, but you won’t find as polished a big man in all of the NBA. Then there’s Andrew Bynum; he is almost as inscrutable as MWP. Mike Brown will have to find a way (and quickly) to get the best out of Jim Buss’ boy, Bynum. How the Lakers big men perform might not decide the series though. The backcourt of Denver is tough, and Gallinari may kill them with MWP out. Ramon Sessions is gonna have to play really well to match Denver’s youthful backcourt, and Sessions has never before had this type of pressure and intensity on an NBA basketball court. If all things were equal, I’d give it to Denver, but Kobe Bryant is still Kobe Bryant. He will win some games on his own, and give LA just enough to advance. 

Head to Head this season - Lakers won 3-1

Prediction

Lakers in 7.

Schedule

Game 1 - Sun. April 29, Denver at L.A. Lakers, 3:30 p.m./12:30 p.m., ABC/R
Game 2 - Tue. May 1, Denver at L.A. Lakers, 10:30 p.m./7:30 p.m., TNT
Game 3 - Fri May 4, L.A. Lakers at Denver, 10:30 p.m./7:30 p.m., ESPN
Game 4 - Sun. May 6, L.A. Lakers at Denver, 9:30 p.m./7:30 p.m., TNT
Game 5 * Tue. May 8, Denver at L.A. Lakers, TBD
Game 6 * Thu. May 10, L.A. Lakers at Denver, TBD
Game 7 * Sat. May 12, Denver at L.A. Lakers, TBD, TNT

You know what Denver lacks? An exploding player (or explosive. Fuck you, I’m hungover). That’s not to say they don’t have guys who can put up 30 once in a while, they just don’t have the night-after-night guy who’s going to take over a game. The Lakers have two, in Kobe and Bynum. Yeah, I said Bynum is a take-over-the-game guy. Because he is. I think he’s the best center in the game right now, certainly in the West. Whether or not he can keep his head on his shoulders beyond this season is a question mark, but that’s kind of the beauty of this Lakers team, and what makes it a better team than last year: they’re all in. They’re hungrier than they’ve been in a couple years (Kobe excluded, as he is always hungry (insert fat Drew Bynum joke here)) and they’re running like a very well-oiled machine.

And here’s the thing not a lot of people are talking about: the Lakers, for as much razzing as that bench gets, are the more talented team. They’re just better! They have three perennial All-Stars (or at least very, very, very good players) in Gasol, Kobe, and Bynum, and had Sessions been with this team from the start of the season, he’d be an All-Star too. Then you have a defensive player on a hot streak (Barnes), a couple of minute-hungry young guns (Ebanks, GOD-LOCK) and three big dudes who aren’t totally worthless (J-Mac, Murph, and Hill). I do think this Nuggets team is smart enough and has enough talent to steal one game at home, but this Lakers team is just the better team. Nuff said.

Prediction

Lakers in 5

fuckyeanba:

Boston Celtics VS. Atlanta Hawks

Preview

The Atlanta Hawks don’t get very much respect. They certainly didn’t when I previewed the South East Division before the season started. They’ve found themselves in a tough spot in their first-round match-up against the suddenly title-contending Boston. On paper, the Celtics and Hawks are nearly identical. Joe Johnson does a solid impersonation of Paul Pierce. He’s a 30 point game waiting to happen, but it remains to be seen whether he really wants it enough to actually dominate a playoff series (we saw glimpses of this against Orlando in Atlanta’s opening round upset last year). Josh Smith is Kevin Garnett. He’s got all the tools (except KG’s reliable jumper) to be an All-NBA player each season, but he’s frequently passed over for the forwards out west. He’s a shot-blocking, oop-dunking, athletic freak (hailing from the same high school as opponent, Rajon Rondo), but can he dominate in the playoffs? Can Smith and Johnson combine to actually upset the Celtics? That’s too many question marks.

Boston was supposed to be done. No one expected them to be a title-contender and there were times earlier this year when people wanted Danny Ainge to blow up the championship nucleus they’ve had in place since that amazing summer in 2007 (the summer they landed Ray Allen and Garnett). Ainge held tough (which is something he should have done with Kendrick Perkins last year), and now the Celtics are in a position to again compete for a title. First they’ll have to get past this surprising Hawks team. Since Allen is somewhat hobbled (bone spurs in his ankle), and Pierce and Garnett are evenly matched with Joe Johnson and Josh Smith (evenly matched in talent, but not in titles or toughness or smarts), it will fall on Rajon Rondo to carry the day. He’s been able to turn up his intensity (like all nationally televised games) and play when the playoffs roll around, so I don’t expect anything different this year. The Celtics have their sites on another title, and unfortunately for the Hawks, they’ll be moving on to bigger and better things after a tough, tough series.

In Head to Head this season - Boston won 2-1 (but Atlanta won the decisive 3rd game to get homecourt in the playoffs despite Boston winning their division with a worse record)

Prediction

Celtics in 6

Schedule

Game 1 - Sun. April 29, Boston at Atlanta, 7 p.m./4 p.m., TNT
Game 2 - Tue. May 1, Boston at Atlanta, 7:30 p.m./4:30 p.m., NBA TV
Game 3 - Fri. May 4, Atlanta at Boston, 7:30 p.m./4:30 p.m., ESPN2
Game 4 - Sun May 6, Atlanta at Boston, 7 p.m./ 4 p.m., TNT
Game 5 * Tue. May 8, Boston at Atlanta, TBD
Game 6 * Thu. May 10, Atlanta at Boston, TBD
Game 7 * Sat. May 12, Boston at Atlanta, TBD, TNT

If you think this series just became worthy of being talked about, you are wrong.

I could’ve told you this was going to be a dogfight of a series. I was just too busy WEEPING. In all seriousness, though, this might be the best Hawks team to ever be in the playoffs (recently) and the worst Celtics team (in the Big Three era). I’ve just never seen the Hawks fight for games so violently before. Maybe it’s because Josh Smith is playing out of his mind? Maybe Ivan “Drago” Johnson’s history of violence is just rubbing off on everyone. The point is, they’re finally taking some pride in their game, and it will pay off big.

Meanwhile, the Celtics keep getting their egos stroked by everybody pointing out how they always “turn it on” during the playoffs, and how experience always win. They apparently haven’t seen a game from this season. Not just a Celtics game, but any game. All rules are out the window. Expect the unexpected. Yeah I just saw New York lose by damn near 40, but you know what? They’ll still win a game. They’ll win two games. Because nothing that has ever happened before matters now.

That’s not to say the Celtics won’t be good in this series. They will. If I had a gun to my head, I’d say they win the first game without Rondo. Then they’ll lose because they don’t have Rondo. Shit, even if they did have Rondo, I’m getting zero momentum vibes from this Celtics team. How does Kevin Garnett have anything in the tank after that pretty damn good season? Why did Greg “Steamboat” Stiemsma get so many minutes this season? Am I supposed to believe he’s good? Because he’s not.

I can’t blame you if you think the Celtics are going to pull out the series, but the Hawks will fight like hell to win. I really think this Hawks team could make a run into the Eastern Conference Finals, provided they make it past my Rose-less Bulls (and depending on the mood of my team going into that series, they might). The Hawks finally know who they are, and they have an identity. Get scared.

Prediction

Hawks in 6

fuckyeanba:

Miami Heat VS. New York Knicks

Preview

The Knicks have taken up a lot of my time this year, what with the departure of D’Antoni, the incredible few weeks of Linsanity, Melo and Amar’e co-existing then existing with Lin and new coach, Mike Woodson, but they look to be rounded into shape now. Except, because of all the drama earlier in the year and a couple prolonged losing streaks, they’ll have a really hard time getting their first playoff victory since 2001 (4,017 days to be exact). They’ve got the 3-point shooting that will be key if they’re going to shock the world. Novak leads the league in accuracy from beyond the arc, and J.R. Smith will hit a couple each game through persistant irrational confidence shots. Carmelo Anthony was probably the best player in the league through the last 3 weeks of the season, and he’ll be primed for the big stage. Unfortunately, they’re facing the Miami Heat.

The Heat don’t have any choice but to win a title. They have a (soon-to-be-announced) 3-time MVP, a finals MVP, and…Chris Bosh. Since they’re barely 7 deep, it will be on their superstars and stars to carry the day. This first round match-up will be vastly different from last year’s Philly warm-up. They’ll be fighting for wins from the very beginning. The reunion of the 2003 NBA draft (‘Melo, Wade, ‘Bron) figures to be the most intriguing subplot as they hoist shot after shot trying to best their opponent. My chrystal ball tells me we’ll see a couple 40-point games from Melo and 1 each for ‘Bron and Wade. In the end, the Knicks 3’s will stop falling and the Heat’s energy will overwhelm the Knicks depleted backcourt. But, the Knicks will fight, and get their first playoff victory in more than a decade. 

Head to Head this season - Heat won 3-0

Prediction

Heat in 6.

Schedule

Game 1 - Sat. April 28, New York at Miami, 3:30 p.m./12:30 p.m., ABC/R
Game 2 - Mon. April 30, New York at Miami, 7 p.m./4 p.m., TNT
Game 3 - Thu. May 3, Miami at New York, 7 p.m./4 p.m., TNT
Game 4 - Sun. May 6, Miami at New York, 3:30 p.m./12:30 p.m, ABC/R
Game 5 * Wed. May 9, New York at Miami, TBD
Game 6 * Fri. May 11, Miami at New York, TBD
Game 7 * Sun. May 13, New York at Miami, TBD

Talk about do-or-die, for both these teams. The Heat seemed like a team possessed for much of the year, but now they’ve started slowing down, like most teams. The problem is the New York Knicks is not most teams right now. They’re on an almost-unreal streak, getting wins over Atlanta, Chicago, the Clippers, and Orlando. You know who they didn’t beat? The Pacers, and the Heat. I’m sure the Knicks would still rather be facing the Pacers though. This is going to a seven game series. I know it seems crazy to think the Knicks can get three wins over this Heat team considering they went 0-3 in the series, but here’s the thing… I got a good feeling. Hey, you want expert analysis, pay me a six-figure salary, some hair gel, a new suit, and put me on ESPN, because then I’d be an expert. I’m just a guy with some extra time and no friends who care about basketball.

Ok, let’s be real. The X-Factor is Lebron. He can’t take off a game or get inside his own head. Dwyane Wade will turn it on like he always does, but he’s not  as healthy or as consistent as he’s been in the past. He’s just not as good as he was last year. Now Chris Bosh is just coming back, and he’s arguably not the player he was last year. This Heat team is worse. Worse than we thought. Norris Cole went from looking so good early to being a liability. Eddy Curry remained Eddy Curry, and the big men on this team are, to use a Michael Jordan quote, “21 feet of shit.” Am I supposed to be impressed by Dexter Pittman’s progression, because I don’t. Shane Battier remains stable and a defensive presence, and Mario Chalmers knows his place. But the rest is pretty garbage.

Sure, the Knicks’ bench isn’t much better, but these guys at least THINK they’re really good. Steve Novak has been lights out. STEVE NOVAK. Landry Fields still has his Lin-given confidence, and JR Smith hasn’t burned anything down yet. This is a team that is on a roll, lead by a “goddamn, he’s good” Carmelo Anthony. The Heat can be devastating when they want to be, though, and if Lebron keeps up the heat on Carmelo, then that domination can happen.

But then I get that gut feeling again, and I just don’t see it happening, yet it must. I see the collapse, and a Knicks team gutting it out, akin to the Mavericks in the Finals. This is a team that is so hot right now and is so determined, but the Heat are just as determined, or at least their MVP is. They don’t really have a choice but to win. They have no excuses this time, and if they lose to this New York Team, then someone’s gonna pay.

Prediction

Heat in 7

fuckyeanba:

Chicago Bulls VS. Philadelphia 76ers 

Preview

The Sixers started 20-9, and finished 15-22. Head coach Doug Collins has done a decent job keeping a young team together enough to squeeze their way into the playoffs. 8 players on the Sixers average over 8 ppg, as the team concept reacheed its pinnacle with this mediocre bunch. The tough part of playing them is you never know who is going to get the hot hand; The easy part, sometimes it’s no one. They are a team to be reckoned with defensively—finishing 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency on the year—but they finished 17th in offensive efficiency. Not only that, but Chicago finished 1st in defensive efficiency.

Derrick Rose is back—we think—and the Bulls still crash the boards like they’re trying to find grenades in the foxhole. They are an absolute nightmare on the offensive glass, and they hassle opposing guards so much it’s a wonder anyone can get past the top of the key. Their second team has defeated the Heat before, and they’ve survived the loss of Derrick Rose for 27 games to tie San Antonio for the best record in the NBA. They’re Tom Thibodeau’s creation: tough, deep, and motivated. I wouldn’t want to face them, safely say Philly feels the same.

Head to Head this season - Bulls won 2-1

Prediction

Bulls in 4.

Schedule

Game 1 - Sat. April 28, Philadelphia at Chicago, 1 p.m./ 10 a.m., TNT
Game 2 - Tue. May 1, Philadelphia at Chicago, 8 p.m./5 p.m., TNT
Game 3 - Fri. May 4, Chicago at Philadelphia, 8 p.m./5 p.m., ESPN
Game 4 - Sun. May 6, Chicago at Philadelphia, 1 p.m./10 a.m., ABC
Game 5 * Tue. May 8, Philadelphia at Chicago, TBD
Game 6 * Thu. May 10, Chicago at Philadelphia, TBD
Game 7 * Sat. May 12, Philadelphia at Chicago, TBD, TNT

Oh hey, a half-hour until the playoffs start. Better write this.

The Chicago Bulls are my team, and I can tell you right now, I will not be unbiased. Or I will be biased. Take your pick. But the fact is these Sixers are whimpering into the playoffs, having completed a meltdown so epic it literally stole both Doug Collins’ assured Coach of the Year trophy and his Rolex. Ok, maybe not literally stole, but it sounds better than figuratively. Figuratively is a fancy word for “fakery” or whatever. If something’s fake, I don’t wanna hear it. But back to this.

Around Chicago people have been buzzing about Evan Turner’s comments about wanting to play the Bulls because they’re the easier team. I don’t know what is going on in Turner’s peanut-shaped head (shaped like the nut, not the shell), but the Bulls are team that are riled up. They have all the confidence without the cockiness. I sometimes get upset at how hard Thibideau is on these guys, but these guys have attached like a bunch of kids looking for approval from their tough-but-fair-expects-the-best father. Derrick Rose is apparently willing to trade every bone, tendon and organ he has to win a championship, Carlos Boozer keeps getting the exact same stats every night (18-7, yawn), Joakim Noah has switched from smoking weed to just replacing all his furniture with piles of feather pillows (so comfy), and Taj Gibson has just realized he’s better than Carlos Boozer, so he’s going to keep playing his ass off.

So why does Turner still Miami’s the tougher team? Shocker, because of injuries. Luol Deng (how did I not mention this all-star in the previous paragraph?) has been ridden hard all season, playing in the high 30s every night. But he’s not a hundred percent, and I don’t care what Derrick says, he ain’t either. I don’t know if these guys will break down during the series, but they sure as heck won’t get any healthier. Despite the fall from grace, the Sixers can turn it on when they want, and they’re not a team you want to bring a tie into the fourth quarter with. This is one of Elton Brand’s last chances, and it’s the moment of truth for Turner and Jrue Holiday if they want to be the stars of the franchise for the next few years. Most importantly, we now will see what Andre Iguodala does best. He’s the best utility man in the game, but look for him, in each series, to put on a show in one arena or another. If he can lock down Luol Deng, keep him from scoring, then we’ll have some real games on our hands. Nonetheless, I expect a trouncing of Philly in 4 of the games, with one game in the middle stolen by Philly. Watch out for those Bulls turnovers. It’s the number one reason why we lose, every time we lose.

Prediction

Bulls in 5

fuckyeanba:

Memphis Grizzlies VS. Los Angeles Clippers

Preview

Never in a million years could anyone have predicted this opening round playoff match-up 2 years ago. The Grizzlies and Clippers are contending with a generation’s worth of infamy. The addition of Chris Paul into the Clippers line-up at the corrupted behest of Stern & Co.™ has meant the Clippers are actually contenders. Not practice pretenders either. At certain points this season, they dominated the Thunder at home (I’m pretty sure Simmons wrote some effusive column about this, but I won’t bother you with a link here), and showed everyone why Chris Paul is a legitimate MVP candidate. He’s willed Blake Griffin to even more dunks and highlights (not to mention a solid 20 and 10 every night), but he can’t help Blake shoot free throws. And really, that’s what’s preventing the Clippers from being considered among the top tier teams. A series of chinks in an already shoddy piece of armor. They’re simply not ready—yet. DeAndre Jordan is still a nice shot-blocker, but little else; Reggie Evans has the @HoopIdea crew absolutely livid with flops and dirty play; Chauncey is gone; Caron Butler is a mediocre small forward under the veneer of a borderline all-star; Mo Williams hasn’t met a shot he didn’t like; same goes for Nick Young; Randy Foye is streaky even by streaky standards, able to go off for 8 3’s one night, and be held scoreless the next; Kenyon Martin is old and still takes ill-advised 17-footers; and Blake Griffin is still a liability at the end of games because of his free throw shooting. All of those weaknesses can be covered up by Chris Paul. If Chris Paul has it in him, he can win this series, almost entirely on his own.

The Memphis Grizzlies are a puzzle. They shocked everyone last year by advancing to the Western Semifinals after beating the top regular season team in the league, the San Antonio Spurs (a caveat to that series is Ginobili was hurt). Zach Randolph finally grew up, but still got into some trouble with the law, then went down with a knee injury almost as soon as this season started. Marc Gasol’s solid play and excellent help defense combined with Rudy Gay’s ascendancy to the player everyone wishes he would always be to keep the Grizzlies in the middle ranks of the Western Conference playoff picture throughout Z-Bo’s absence. Mike Conley is a dependable point guard, and OJ Mayo’s game has flourished coming off the bench. Tony Allen is the best perimeter defender not named—well no—he’s the best (sorry Andre Iguodala and ‘Bron). He can match-up well against any opposing scorer (Boston still wishes he were back in town). Plus, now the Grizz have had Z-Bo back long enough to get into the rotation; he’s coming off the bench to add offensive firepower to a second unit and to end games. Add all that up, and they’re going to be a tough out for anyone, even Chris Paul and the Clippers. This series—more than any other 1st round match-up—will be a fight. A fight to escape history; a fight against one another; a fight to finally bring some relief to long-suffering fans; a fight to ascertain who really has rebounded from decades of mismanagement and under-performance. It will be a fight, but Memphis will again advance. Unless Chris Paul does what—almost no one but Chris Paul—can do. I’m not sure his creaky legs are up to it after such a jam-packed regular season schedule. 

In Head to Head this season - the Clippers won 2-1 (with Memphis winning their most recent game)

Prediction

Grizzlies in 7

Schedule

Game 1 - Sun. April 29, L.A. Clippers at Memphis, 9:30 p.m./6:30 p.m., TNT
Game 2 - Wed. May 2, L.A. Clippers at Memphis, 9:30 p.m./6:30 p.m., TNT
Game 3 - Sat. May 5, Memphis at L.A. Clippers, 4:30 p.m./1:30 p.m., ESPN
Game 4 - Mon. May 7, Memphis at L.A. Clippers, TBD
Game 5 * Wed. May 9, L.A. Clippers at Memphis, TBD
Game 6 * Fri. May 11, Memphis at L.A. Clippers, TBD
Game 7 * Sun. May 13, L.A. Clippers at Memphis, TBD

Would everybody understand me when I say that these two teams are perfect for each other? In a playoff contest, natch, not in some sort of 12-on-12 dating scenario, though Tony Allen would make a hilarious mature lover for Nick Young. No, I mean there’s a natural narrative that leads us to them facing off. Prior to the Chris Paul trade, the Grizzlies were poised to be “that team,” y’know the one that makes the big jump and becomes a serious contender before likely getting bumped by the clearly superior team in the Conference Finals (the Thunder, we agreed). The Clippers looked like the Clippers, a team with a fine bit of potential, some good pieces, and a superstar and possible icon in Blake Griffin.

Flash forward to after the trade. The Clippers suddenly look like the team to win it all. They have a proven field general in the form of Chris Paul. Chauncey Billups is no longer burdened with having to run plays, instead getting to be the shoot-first guard he’s wanted to be for some time. DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin just have to catch some alley-oops, and Caron Butler fills in the blanks, one of the best high-end utility guys in the game. Shortly after starting the season started, Zach Randolph went down. The Grizzlies seem poised through another season of “if they were only healthy” and a 7 or 8 seed.

But something funny happened. Not haha funny, just “oh what a crazy world” funny. The Clippers, instead of being helmed by Blake Griffin, became Chris Paul’s team. Griffin became a bullet for Paul’s gun, while Billups bit the dust in seconds flat. DeAndre didn’t totally live up to the hype, and Randy Foye got 25 minutes a game. Throw in the wacky Nick Young and “Random Veteran X” Kenyon Martin, and the Clippers made for a still-impressive 4-seed, with a bright future if they dump Vinny Del Negro and convince Chris Paul to stick around.

Meanwhile in Memphis, Rudy Gay stopped being just a rich man’s Danny Granger, Marc Gasol kept getting big minutes, and handled them nicely. Randolph returned from injury to become a bench savant, Tony Allen remains the emotional core, and Marreese Speights became a basketball player. They now seem to be that “team to watch out for” in the playoffs, but with the shaky state of the Western Conference, there’s now title talk for the Grizz.

There’s two match ups to watch out for with three supplying X-factors. First, the battles between the big men on this team will be DIRTY. Lots of scrapping for rebounds, and even more scrapping for paint control offensively. It’ll be a real test for for DeAndre and Blake to see if they can handle themselves against the bruising up court in Memphis. The other matchup will be between Michael Conley and Chris Paul. A level of domination is expected from Paul, but Conley has looked DAMN good at times this season, and if he can even hold his own against Paul, maybe even win a few battles, then his stock is gonna rise in a big way, and the Grizz will benefit. From this battle though is one of the X-Facors, and that’s Chris Paul’s health. Yes, I know, he’s been healthy so far, but knowing how he’s gonna kick it up for the playoffs, there’s a genuine risk for implosion, and to be honest, if Paul’s gone, the Clips definitely lose this series.

The second X-Factor is coaching. For all the Grizz success, Hollins has only gotten a couple kudos here and there. I was originally surprised he wasn’t heard about more for Coach of the Year, but then I remembered that if you have a team with OJ Mayo, Gay, Randolph, and a Gasol, you better have a nice spot in the playoffs, or you got problems. But Hollins is a smart coach and knows how to manage his guys. The same cannot be said for Chris from The Sopranos Vinny Del Negro. Look, Vinny has no business being a head coach. He just doesn’t. He doesn’t know what he’s doing. I remember Twitter blowing up with jokes when ESPN showed him drawing up a play. Can you name a coach so obviously incompetent to the naked eye? Shit, that award might go to a former Clippers coach, the infamous Freddy Kruger Mike Dunleavy. If this series is going to seven games, and I think it will, then clutch play AND clutch coaching will be a factor, and I think the Grizz have the advantage in the latter.

The third X-Factor is going to be Rudy Gay’s consistency. Rudy’s absence from the playoffs last year may have been the reason the Grizzlies didn’t get further, but he was also cited as the reason they got so much better in the first place, and his presence would disturb the hot streak the Grizz were on. This season, it’s been a different tune. Rudy’s been on point all year, finally learning to take advantage of his size and grab some boards in Randolph’s absence while maintaining his bucket output. This is Rudy’s first postseason, and if he can turn it on, then the Grizz will be moving on.

Prediction

Grizzlies in 7